Kutchova njuga kwa Silicon Valley Bank ndi KPI's Led to its Collapse

Kufunika kowongolera kusintha ndi kuyang'anira koyenera

Aliyense akuwunika zotsatira za kulephera kwaposachedwa kwa Silicon Valley Bank. A Feds akudziwombera okha chifukwa chosawona zizindikiro zochenjeza kale. Otsatsa ali ndi nkhawa kuti mabanki ena angatsatire. Congress ikuchita zokambirana kuti athe kumvetsetsa bwino zomwe zidapangitsa kuti bankiyo igwe.

Mtsutso ukhoza kupangidwa kuti zomwe zimayambitsa mavuto a SVB ndi kulingalira kolakwika ndi kuyang'anira mosasamala. Onse a Federal Reserve System ndi kasamalidwe ka mkati mwa banki akhoza kuimbidwa mlandu chifukwa chosasamala. Lingaliro lolakwika limafanana kwambiri ndi zolakwika zomwe wotchova njuga amapanga akamayesa kuopsa kwake ndi phindu lomwe angapeze. Ndi zamaganizo. Zikuwoneka kuti oyang'anira a SVB atha kukhala okhudzidwa ndi malingaliro omwewo omwe mungawone pa gudumu la roulette.

Chitsanzo chabwino cha kaganizidwe kameneka kanawoneka usiku wina 1863 ku Monte Carlo Casino, Monaco. Nkhani za kupambana mu nthano ndi kutayika koopsa ku Monte Carlo ndi zopeka. Podziwa nthawi yoti achoke, m'modzi mwa opambana kwambiri pa kasino adatenga ndalama zopitilila miliyoni imodzi akusewera roulette. Wotchova njuga wina, Charles Wells, adatchedwa "Mwamuna yemwe adathyola banki ku Monte Carlo" pamene adachita zomwezo ka 6 pa masiku atatu mu 3, komanso pa roulette.^[1]

("Pa tebulo la Roulette ku Monte Carlo" Edvard Munch, 1892 gwero.)

kutchova

Ogasiti 18, 1913 osewera pagome la roulette adachitiridwa chochitika chosowa kwambiri kuposa kupambana lottery ya Powerball. Kaŵirikaŵiri amasonyezedwa monga chitsanzo cha zinthu zazitali, mpira woyera unatera pa wakuda ka 26 motsatizana. Mkati mwa mpikisano wodabwitsa umenewo, otchova juga anakhulupirira kuti kufiira kunali koyenera. Mwachitsanzo, mutatha kuthamanga kwa 5 kapena 10 wakuda, kuika ndalama zanu pansi pa zofiira ndi chinthu chotsimikizika. Umenewo ndi chinyengo cha wotchova njuga. Ma franc ambiri adatayika tsiku lomwelo pomwe amachulukitsa kubetcha kulikonse, otsimikiza kwambiri pakuzungulira kulikonse kuti atha kugunda kwambiri.

Mpata woti mpira wa roulette utsike wakuda (kapena wofiira) ndi wochepera 50%. (Mipata 38 pa gudumu la roulette amagawidwa kukhala 16 ofiira, 16 wakuda, wobiriwira 0 ndi wobiriwira 00.) Kuzungulira kulikonse kumakhala kodziimira. Sichimakhudzidwa ndi spin pamaso pake. Chifukwa chake, ma spin aliwonse amakhala ndi mwayi womwewo. Mwinamwake, kudutsa pansi pa casino pa matebulo a Blackjack, maganizo osiyana anali kusewera. Wosewera adagunda pa 17 ndipo adapeza 4. Amayima pa 15 ndipo wogulitsa amawombera. Amajambula 19 ndikumenya wogulitsa 17. Ali ndi dzanja lotentha. Iye sangakhoze kutaya. Kubetcha kulikonse komwe amayika kumakhala kokulirapo. Iye ali pamndandanda. Izinso ndi zolakwika za wotchova njuga.

Chowonadi ndi chakuti kutentha kapena kuzizira, "Lady Luck" kapena "Abiti Fortune", zovuta sizisintha. Kuthekera kotembenuza khobidi ndikuigwera pamutu mutaponya michira 5 ndikofanana ndendende ndi kuponya koyamba. Momwemonso ndi gudumu la roulette. Momwemonso ndi makadi.

Makampani

Mwachiwonekere, osunga ndalama amaganiza ngati otchova njuga. Ayenera kukumbutsidwa kumapeto kwa zotsatsa zilizonse zazachuma kuti "ntchito zam'mbuyomu sizizindikiro kapena chitsimikizo cha zotsatira zamtsogolo." A posachedwa lipoti adatsimikizira kuti zotsatira "zikugwirizana ndi lingaliro lakuti zochitika zakale zimangogwirizanitsidwa ndi zochitika zamtsogolo."

Zina zachuma atsimikizira izi mwa osunga ndalama omwe ali ndi masheya omwe akutaya mtengo ndikugulitsa masheya omwe akupeza. Khalidweli limapangitsa kuti opambana agulitse msanga kwambiri ndikusunga otayika nthawi yayitali. Malingaliro olakwika a Investor ndikuti kaya katunduyo akuchita bwino kapena ayi, mafunde adzasintha. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mtengo wamtengo wapatali si chinthu chokhacho chomwe chiyenera kutsimikizira njira yanu yogulitsira.

Osunga ndalama

Mabanki satetezedwa ku malingaliro olakwika, mwina. Executives ku Silicon Valley Bank adasewera mwanzeru zandalama. Oyang'anira ku SVB adagwiritsa ntchito njira yomwe amabisa mozindikira njira zazikulu zowopsa. Imodzi mwa njira zomwe mabanki amapangira ndalama ndikuyika zinthu zanthawi yayitali monga ma bond, mangongole kapena ngongole. Banki imalandira ndalama potengera kufalikira kwa chiwongola dzanja chomwe amapeza pazinthuzo komanso chiwongola dzanja chomwe amalipira pakanthawi kochepa. SVB idapanga kubetcha kwakukulu pama bond anthawi yayitali.

Mabanki amayang'aniridwa ndi mabungwe olamulira monga Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) omwe amawunika miyeso yayikulu yachiwopsezo ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe angakhale nazo mdera lililonse. Mabanki akuyembekezeka kukhala ndi njira zowongolera zowopsa, kuphatikiza kuwunika ndi kuyang'anira zoopsa zogwirizana ndi ndalama zawo. Akuyenera kuyesa kupsinjika kuti awone momwe mavuto azachuma angakhudzire thanzi lawo. Ma KPIs owonetseratu a SVB adawonetsa kuti padzakhala vuto lalikulu lazachuma pakufalikira komwe akusewera ngati pangakhale kuwonjezeka kwa chiwongola dzanja. Mu njira yaukadaulo, banki sinafunikire kufotokoza za "kutayika kwa mapepala" kwa ngongoleyo chifukwa zambiri zimatchedwa "kukhwima."

Choyenera kuchita chinali kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha banki yokhudzana ndi chiwongola dzanja ndikusiyana ndikuyika ndalama kwina, monga ntchito zosinthira ndalama zakunja, kukwera mtengo wama kirediti kadi kapena kusiya kupereka ma toasters.

M'malo mwake, opanga zisankho zazikulu adaganiza kuti kupambana koyambirira kwa banki kupitilira. Apanso, chinyengo cha wotchova njuga. Ogwira ntchito ku Silicon Valley Bank anasintha ndondomeko ya KPIs. Kotero, iwo anatenga kuwala kofiira komwe kungasonyeze chiopsezo ndi kusintha kwa njira ndipo adazijambula zobiriwira. Atafika pamzerewu ndi chizindikiro cha magalimoto obiriwira pomwe chiwongola dzanja chinayamba kukwera palibe chomwe angachite koma kuyamba kugulitsa katundu - mwangozi! Kugulitsa kwa banki kwachitetezo chake kuti akweze ndalama kudapangitsa kuti $ 1.8 biliyoni iwonongeke kwakanthawi kochepa. Izi zidachititsa mantha osunga ndalama kubanki. Palibe amene ankaganiza kuti ndalama zawo zinali zotetezeka. Makasitomala adachotsa $42 biliyoni tsiku limodzi. Bomu! Usiku wonse a Feds adalowa ndikuwongolera.

Amabetcherana banki (kwenikweni) poganiza kuti ali ndi dzanja lotentha ndipo kupota kotsatira kwa gudumu la roulette kudzabweranso kwakuda.

Analysis

The post mortem kuwululidwa kuti oposa theka la katundu wake anali womangidwa mu chitetezo cha nthawi yaitali. Kukula kumeneku komanso kofulumira komwe kumalumikizidwa ndiukadaulo wa Silicon Valley komanso zoyambira zaumoyo zidapangitsa kuti anthu aziwonekera. Potsatira upangiri wawo wokhudza kusiyanasiyana, banki idangotenga 4% yokha yazinthu zake m'maakaunti osachita chiwongola dzanja pomwe idalipira kwambiri kuposa mabanki ena pama depositi okhala ndi chiwongola dzanja.

Anakonza

Yankho losunga mabanki owonjezera akutsatira mapazi a Silicon Valley Bank ali pawiri.

1. Kuzindikira. Olemba mabanki, monga osunga ndalama ndi otchova njuga, ayenera kudziwa zolakwika zomwe ubongo wathu ungathe kuchita pa ife. Kumvetsetsa ndi kuvomereza kuti muli ndi vuto ndi sitepe yoyamba yothetsera vutolo.
2. Zinthu zodzitetezera. Tekinoloje imatha kugwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri kuti zolephera ngati izi zisachitike. Sarbanes-Oxley Act ya 2002 idakhazikitsidwa, mwa zina, kuteteza anthu ku kusasamala kwachuma. Mabungwe azachuma amawunikiridwa pazowongolera zawo zamkati. Kuwongolera kwamkati ndi ndondomeko ndi njira zowonetsetsa kuti zidziwitso zachuma ndi zowerengera ndalama zikuyenda bwino, kulimbikitsa kuyankha komanso kupewa chinyengo.

Mabanki ayenera kukhazikitsa amphamvu machitidwe owongolera mkati kuwonetsetsa kuti malipoti azachuma ndi olondola komanso odalirika. Izi zingaphatikizepo kukhazikitsa zowongolera zokha, kulekanitsa ntchito, ndi kukhazikitsa ntchito yowerengera yodziyimira payokha kuti muwone zofooka ndikuwonetsetsa kuti zikutsatira. Zipangizo zamakono sizingalowe m'malo mwa maulamuliro olimba amkati, koma angathandize kuwakakamiza. Monga chida, teknoloji imatha kutsimikizira kuti macheke ndi miyeso ikutsatiridwa.

Ukadaulo uyenera kukhala pachimake pakuwunika utsogoleri ndi kuwongolera ndipo ukhale gawo la pulogalamu iliyonse yowongolera zoopsa. M'mabanki a Federal Reserve kuyesa, ichi chinali chofooka chachikulu chomwe chinapangitsa kuti SVB iwonongeke. Machitidwe omwe amapereka chidziwitso chokhudza kusintha kwa deta ndi ofunika kwambiri, osati kulamulira kokha, koma kuti athe kuchita kafukufuku wazamalamulo pambuyo pake.

Sinthani kasamalidwe ndi ndondomeko yokonzekera, kukhazikitsa, ndi kulamulira kusintha kwa mapulogalamu a mapulogalamu mwadongosolo komanso mwadongosolo. Monga tafotokozera kwina za mafakitale omwe ali pansi pa Sarbanes-Oxley,

"Chimodzi mwazofunikira pakutsata lamulo la Sarbanes-Oxley ndikutanthauzira maulamuliro omwe alipo komanso momwe kusintha kwa data kapena kugwiritsa ntchito kuyenera kulembedwera mwadongosolo. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, chilango cha Change Management. Chitetezo, deta ndi kupezeka kwa mapulogalamu ziyenera kuyang'aniridwa, komanso, ngati machitidwe a IT sakugwira ntchito bwino. Kutsatiridwa sikudalira kufotokoza ndondomeko ndi njira zotetezera chilengedwe, komanso kuchita izo ndi kutsimikizira kuti zachitika. Monga momwe umboni wa apolisi amagwirira ntchito, kutsata Sarbanes-Oxley kumakhala kolimba ngati ulalo wofooka kwambiri. "

N'chimodzimodzinso ndi malamulo a mabanki, koma makamaka.

Zowongolera ziyenera kukhalapo kuti zitetezedwe kwa aliyense wosewera woyipa. Zosintha ziyenera kuwerengedwa. Ofufuza amkati, komanso owerengera akunja ndi owongolera, ayenera kukonzanso zochitika zambiri ndikutsimikizira kuti njira zoyenera zatsatiridwa. Pogwiritsa ntchito malingalirowa pakuwongolera mkati ndi kusintha kasamalidwe, mabanki amatha kuchepetsa chiopsezo, kuonetsetsa kuti akutsatira zofunikira zamalamulo, ndikuletsa kulephera. (Chithunzi: Wosewera woyipa.)

Ndi kuwongolera koyenera kwa mtundu ndikusintha ukadaulo wowongolera kuti uwone kusintha kwa ma metrics ngati KPIs, ndi njira zovomerezera ndi kusaina zosintha, kulephera kowopsa kwa SVB sikungabwerezedwenso kumabanki ena. Mwachidule, kuyankha kutha kukakamizidwa. Kusintha kwa ma metrics ofunikira kuyenera kutsatira ndondomekoyi. Ndani anasintha? Kodi kusintha kunali kotani? Nanga kusinthako kunapangidwa liti? Zinthu za datazi zikajambulidwa zokha, pangakhale chiyeso chocheperako kuyesa kulambalala zowongolera zamkati.

Zothandizira

1. Chitsanzo chowopsa cha Silicon Valley Bank chinawala mofiyira. Chifukwa chake oyang'anira ake adasintha, Washington Post
2. Kodi nchifukwa ninji timaganiza kuti chinthu chongochitika mwachisawawa ndichosavuta kapena chocheperapo ngati chinachitika kangapo m’mbuyomo? The Decision Lab
3. Fed autopsy pa kasamalidwe ka banki ya SVB - komanso kuyang'anira kwake, CNN
4. Ndemanga za Federal Reserve's Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve System
5. The Silicon Valley Bank Kugwa Ndi Polycrisis, Forbes
6. Phunziro Likutsimikizira Zotsatira Zam'mbuyomu Osaneneratu Zam'tsogolo, Forbes
7. Zosadziwika bwino za Monaco: Casino de Monte-Carlo, Moni Monaco
8. Ulamuliro Wamkati: Tanthauzo, Mitundu, ndi Kufunika, Investopedia

1. Wells anamwalira ali wosauka mu 1926. ↑