Kubhejera kweSilicon Valley Bank neKPI's Led to its Collapse

Kukosha kwekuchinja manejimendi uye kutarisa kwakakodzera

Wese munhu ari kuongorora zvakazoitika mushure mekukundikana kweSilicon Valley Bank. MaFed ari kuzvikanda nekusaona zviratidzo zvekunyevera kare. Vanoisa mari vari kunetsekana kuti mamwe mabhanga anogona kutevera. Kongiresi iri kuita misangano kuitira kuti vanzwisise zviri nani zvakaitika zvakakonzera kuparara kwebhanga iri.

Nharo inogona kuitwa yekuti zvikonzero zvematambudziko eSVB kufunga kwakakanganisika uye kusatarisisa. Ose ari maviri Federal Reserve System uye manejimendi emukati mebhangi anogona kupomedzerwa mhosva yekurembedza kutarisa. Kufunga kwakashata kwakangofanana nekukanganisa kunoitwa nemubhejeri paanenge achifungidzira njodzi yake uye muripo unobvira. Zviri zvepfungwa. Zvinotaridza kuti manejimendi eSVB anogona kunge akabatwa nemhando imwe chete yekufunga iwe yaungaona pavhiri reroulette.

Mufananidzo wakanaka wemafungiro akadaro wakaonekwa humwe husiku mukati 1863 paMonte Carlo Casino, Monaco. Nyaya dzekuhwina kwengano uye kurasikirwa kwakaipisisa paMonte Carlo ingano. Achiziva nguva yekufamba, mumwe wevakahwina zvikuru mukhasino akaenda kumba anopfuura miriyoni yemadhora achitamba roulette. Mumwe mubhejeri, Charles Wells, akawana zita remadunhurirwa rekuti "Murume akaputsa bhangi paMonte Carlo" paakangoita izvozvo ka6 pamazuva matatu muna 3, zvakare paroulette.^[1]

("Patafura yeRoulette muMonte Carlo" Edvard Munch, 1892 mabviro.)

vanobhejera

Nyamavhuvhu 18, 1913 vatambi patafura yeroulette vakaitirwa chiitiko chisingawanzo pane kuhwina lottery yePowerball. Kazhinji inonongedzerwa kune semuenzaniso wenguva refu, bhora jena rakamhara padema ka26 mumutsara. Mukati mokumhanya ikoko kunoshamisa, vabhejeri vakapwiswa kuti chitsvuku chakanga chakafanira. Semuenzaniso, mushure mekumhanya kwevashanu kana gumi vatema, kuisa mari yako pasi pane tsvuku chinhu chechokwadi. Ndiko kunyengera kwomubhejeri. Mafranc mazhinji akarasika musi iwoyo sezvavaipeta kaviri kubheja kwega kwega, vachiwedzera chokwadi nekutenderera kwega kwega kuti vangangorirova zvikuru.

Iwo mukana weiyo roulette bhora kumhara pane dema (kana tsvuku) ishoma pasi pe50%. (38 slots pa roulette vhiri akakamurwa kuita 16 tsvuku, 16 nhema, yegirini 0 uye yegirini 00.) Imwe neimwe inoruka inozvimiririra. Haina kukanganiswa nekutenderera pamberi payo. Saka, kutenderera kwega kwega kune zvipingamupinyi zvakafanana. Sezvingabvira, pamhiri pekasino pasi pamatafura eBlackjack, kufunga kwakapesana kwaiitwa. Mutambi akarova pa17 ndokusimudza 4. Akamira pa15 uye mutengesi anoputika. Anodhirowa 19 uye anokunda 17 yemutengesi. Ane ruoko runopisa. Haakwanisi kurasikirwa. Kubheti kwese kwaanoisa kwakakura. Ari mushishi. Uhu ndihwowo hunyengeri hwemubhejeri.

Chokwadi ndechekuti kupisa kana kutonhora, “Lady Luck” kana “Miss Fortune”, zvisingachinjike. Mukana wekutenderedza coin woita kuti imhare pamisoro mushure mekukanda miswe mishanu wakangofanana nekutanga kukanda. Zvimwe chete nevhiri reroulette. Zvimwe chete nemakadhi.

vanoita

Sezviri pachena, vatengesi vanofunga sevabhejeri. Ivo vanofanirwa kuyeuchidzwa pakupera kwese kushambadza kwemasevhisi emari kuti "kuita kwekare hakusi chiratidzo kana vimbiso yezvaizoitika." A ichangoburwa ripoti yakasimbisa kuti mhedzisiro "inopindirana nepfungwa yekuti kuita kwenhoroondo kunongoenderana nekuita kweramangwana."

mwe economists vakasimbisa kucherechedzwa uku muvatengesi vane masheya ari kurasikirwa nekukosha uye kutengesa masheya ari kuwana. Hunhu uhu hunoguma nekutengesa vanokunda nekukurumidza uye kubata vanorasikirwa kwenguva yakareba. Muitisi ane mhosva anofunga kuti kana chitoro chiri kuita zvakanaka kana kuti zvisina kunaka, mafambiro achashanduka. Mune mamwe mazwi, maitiro emutengo wemasheya haisiriyo chete chinhu chinofanira kunge chiri kutarisa nzira yako yekudyara.

Mabhangi

Mabhangi haana kudzivirirwa kubva kune kukanganisa pfungwa, kana. Vatungamiri pa Silicon Valley Bhangi akatamba mamwe matsotsi emari. Vatungamiri veSVB vakashandisa chirongwa chavakavanza nekuziva maitiro enjodzi. Imwe yenzira idzo mabhanga anoita mari nekudyara zvinhu zvenguva refu semabhondi, zvikwereti zvemba kana zvikwereti. Bhangi rinowana mari nekutamba kupararira kweyero yemubereko inowanikwa pazvinhu izvozvo uye mubereko unobhadharwa pazvikwereti zvenguva pfupi. SVB yakaita bheji hombe pamabhondi enguva refu.

Mabhangi ari pasi pemasangano anotonga senge Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) iyo inoongorora akakosha metrics enjodzi uye kudzikisira huwandu hwemari yavanogona kuva nayo munzvimbo chero ipi zvayo. Mabhangi anotarisirwa kuve nemaitiro akasimba ekugadzirisa njodzi munzvimbo, kusanganisira kuongorora uye kuongorora njodzi zvinoenderana nekudyara kwavo. Vanosungirwa kuita bvunzo dzekushushikana kuti vaone kukanganisa kunogona kuitika kwemamiriro ehupfumi akashata pahutano hwavo hwemari. SVB's predictive KPIs yakaratidza kuti paizova nekukosha kwemari kukanganisa pakupararira kwavanenge vachitamba kana paine kuwedzera kwemari yezvibereko. Mune yehunyanzvi loophole, bhangi rakanga risingatarisirwe kuzivisa nezve "kurasikirwa kwemapepa" kwechikwereti portfolio nekuti yakawanda yacho yainzi "yakabatwa pakukura."

Chiito chakanaka chaifanira kutorwa ndechekuderedza njodzi yebhangi ine chekuita nemitengo yemubereko uye kusiyanisa nekudyara kumwe kunhu, semasevhisi ekuchinjana mari yekunze, kukwira mari yekadhi rechikwereti kana kurega kupa ma toasters.

Pane kudaro, vatori vezvisarudzo zvakakosha vaifunga kuti kubudirira kwebhangi kwekutanga kwaizoenderera mberi. Zvakare, hunyengeri hwomubhejeri. Vatungamiri veSilicon Valley Bank vakashandura fomula yeKPIs. Saka, vakatora rabhoti dzvuku rairatidza njodzi uye shanduko yehurongwa uye vakaipenda yegirini. Pavakasvika pamharadzano nechiratidzo chegirini chetraffic chakapendwa apo mhindu yakatanga kukwira hapana chavaigona kuita kunze kwekutanga kutengesa zvinhu - varasikirwa! Kutengeswa kwebhanga iri kwekuchengetedza mari kuti riwane mari kwakakonzera kurasikirwa kwe $ 1.8 bhiriyoni kwenguva pfupi. Izvi zvakavhundutsa vanoisa mari mubhanga. Hapana aifunga kuti mari yavo yakanga yakachengeteka. Vatengi vakabvisa madhora mabhiriyoni makumi mana nemaviri muzuva rimwe chete. Boom! Husiku hwese maFed akapinda mukati ndokutora masimba.

Vanobheja bhangi (chaizvoizvo) vachifungidzira kuti vaive neruoko rwunopisa uye iyo inotevera spin yevhiri reroulette yaizobuda yakasviba zvakare.

ongororo

The post mortem kwakaratidza kuti inopfuura hafu yemidziyo yayo yakasungirirwa muzvibatiso zvenguva refu. Izvo uye kukurumidza kukura kwakasungirirwa kuSilicon Valley tech uye hutano hwekutanga hwakatungamira mukuratidzwa kwakanyanya. Nezvekutevedzera zano ravo maererano nekusiyana-siyana, bhanga rakangobata zvikamu zvina kubva muzana zvezvinhu zvaro mumaakaundi asina mubereko asi ivo vachibhadhara zvakanyanya kupfuura mamwe mabhanga pamadhipoziti ane mhindu.

mhinduro

Mhinduro yekuchengeta mamwe mabhanga achitevera tsoka dzeSilicon Valley Bank ane mbiri.

1. Kuziva. Vemabhangi, sevanoisa mari uye vanobhejera, vanofanirwa kuziva zvikanganiso zvepfungwa izvo pfungwa dzedu dzinogona kutamba patiri. Kunzwisisa uye kubvuma kuti une dambudziko ndiro danho rekutanga pakugadzirisa dambudziko.
2. Zvidziviriro. Tekinoroji inogona kuita basa rakakosha kuchengetedza kukundikana seizvi kuti zvisaitike. Sarbanes-Oxley Act ye2002 yakagadzwa, muchikamu, kuchengetedza veruzhinji kubva mukusabhadhara mari. Masangano emari anoongororwa pakutonga kwemukati. Yemukati kutonga ndiyo mitemo uye maitiro e "kuona kutendeseka kweruzivo rwemari uye accounting, kukurudzira kuzvidavirira uye kudzivirira hutsotsi."

Mabhangi anofanira kutanga akasimba zvirongwa zvekutonga zvemukati kuve nechokwadi chechokwadi uye kuvimbika kwekushuma kwemari. Izvi zvinogona kusanganisira kuita otomatiki zvidzoreso, kupatsanura mabasa, uye kumisikidza yakazvimirira yekuongorora basa kuona kusasimba uye kuve nechokwadi chekutevedza. Tekinoroji haigone kutsiva yakasimba yemukati kudzora, asi inogona kubatsira kuisimbisa. Sechishandiso, tekinoroji inogona kuvimbisa kuti cheki uye zviyero zviri kuteverwa.

Tekinoroji inofanirwa kunge iri pamwoyo wekutarisa hutongi nekutonga uye inofanirwa kuve chikamu chechero njodzi-yekutarisira chirongwa. Muchikamu cheFederal Reserve Bank kuongorora, uku kwaive kutadza kukuru kwakakonzera kuparara kweSVB. Masisitimu anopa ruzivo nezve shanduko kune data akakosha kune, kwete chete hutongi, asi kune kugona kuita ongororo yekuongorora mushure mechokwadi.

Shanduko yekugadzirisa inzira yekuronga, kuita, uye kutonga shanduko kumasoftware masisitimu nenzira yakarongeka uye yakarongeka. Sezvatakanongedza kumwe kunhu nezve maindasitiri ari pasi peSarbanes-Oxley,

"Chimwe chezvakakosha zvinodiwa pakuteerana neSarbanes-Oxley Act kutsanangura zvidzoreso zviripo uye kuti shanduko yedata kana maapplication inofanira kunyorwa zvakarongeka sei. Mune mamwe mazwi, chirango cheChange Management. Chengetedzo, data uye kuwanikwa kwesoftware kunoda kutariswa, uyezve, kana masisitimu eIT asiri kushanda nemazvo. Kuteerera kunoenderana kwete nekungotsanangura marongero nemaitiro ekuchengetedza nharaunda, asi zvakare kuzviita chaizvo uye pakupedzisira kugona kuratidza kuti zvakaitwa. Kungofanana nemapurisa ehumbowo hwehusungwa, kutevedzera Sarbanes-Oxley kwakasimba senge isina simba link. "

Izvi zvakafanana zvinogona kutaurwa nezvemitemo yebhangi, asi zvakanyanya.

Zvidzoreso zvinofanirwa kunge zviripo kudzivirira kubva kune chero ipi zvayo mutambi akaipa. Shanduko dzinofanirwa kuongororwa. Mukati maAuditor, pamwe nevekunze maodhita nevatongi, vanofanirwa kukwanisa kuvakazve ketani yezviitiko uye kusimbisa kuti nzira dzakakodzera dzakatevedzwa. Nekuita izvi kurudziro yekutonga kwemukati uye shanduko manejimendi, mabhanga anogona kuderedza njodzi, kuve nechokwadi chekuteedzera zvinodiwa nemutemo, uye pakupedzisira kudzivirira kutadza. (Mufananidzo: Mutambi akaipa.)

Nekwakakodzera shanduro yekutonga uye shanduko yekudzora tekinoroji panzvimbo yekutarisa shanduko kune metrics seKPIs, uye maitiro aripo ekubvumira uye kusaina-kubvisa pane shanduko, kutadza kunotyisa kweSVB kashoma kudzokororwa kune mamwe mabhanga. Muchidimbu, kuzvidavirira kunogona kusimbiswa. Shanduko kune akakosha metrics dzinofanira kutevedzera maitiro. Ndiani akaita shanduko? Chii chakanga chiri shanduko? Uye chinjo yacho yakaitwa rini? Nezvinhu izvi zve data zvakarekodhwa otomatiki, panogona kunge paine muedzo wekuyedza kunzvenga zvidzoreso zvemukati.

References

1. Nzira yengozi yeSilicon Valley Bank yakapenya tsvuku. Saka vatariri vayo vakaichinja, Washington Post
2. Nei tichifunga kuti chiitiko chisina kujairika chingangoitika kana chakaderera kana chakaitika kakawanda munguva yakapfuura? Iyo Sarudzo Lab
3. Fed autopsy paSVB kukanganisa manejimendi ebhangi - uye nekutarisa kwayo, CNN
4. Ongororo yeFederal Reserve's Supervision uye Regulation yeSilicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve System
5. Iyo Silicon Valley Bank Kudonha Uye Iyo Polycrisis, Forbes
6. Kudzidza Kunoratidza Zvakapfuura Mhedzisiro Usafembera Mibairo Yeramangwana, Forbes
7. Chokwadi chisingazivikanwe nezveMonaco: Kasino de Monte-Carlo, Mhoro Monaco
8. Kudzora Kwemukati: Tsanangudzo, Mhando, uye Kukosha, Investopedia

1. Wells akafa ari murombo muna 1926. ↑