Swish okanye Miss: Indima ye-Data Bias kwi-NCAA Basketball Predictions
Isizini yebhola yomnyazi yekholeji yowama-2023 ithwese isithsaba iintshatsheli ezimbini ebezingalindelekanga, kunye namaqela e-LSU yabasetyhini kunye ne-UConn yamadoda ephakamisa iindebe eDallas naseHouston, ngokulandelelanayo.
Ndithi bekungalindelekanga kuba, phambi kokuba kuqale isizini, akukho nelinye kula maqela ekucingelwa ukuba likhuphisana newonga. Bobabini banikwe ithuba le-60-1 lokuphumelela yonke into, kwaye i-media kunye nokuvota kwabaqeqeshi bebengabaniki ntlonipho ingako.
Nangona kunjalo, amaqela abonisa ukuba amanqanaba kunye nokuvota akuchanekanga ukusukela oko baqala ukuvela ngeminyaka yoo-1930s. Kwaye ukuba kumgangatho ophezulu akuqinisekisi impumelelo.
Ukusukela ekwandeni kwetumente yebhola yomnyazi yamadoda ngo-1985, ngamaqela amathandathu kuphela abeka indawo yokuqala kwi-Poll ye-AP aphumelele itayitile. Kuphantse ukuba sisiqalekiso kunentsikelelo ngelo xesha.
Zingaphi kwezi zikhundla kunye novoto ezikhoyo phaya?
Nangona sinako ukufikelela kwi-plethora yezikhundla ezithathwa ngokufanelekileyo kwiintatheli ezizimeleyo ezifana neCharlie Creme ye-ESPN kunye noJeff Borzello, i-Big Ten Network's Andy Katz, kunye neFox Sports 'John Fanta, kukho iivoti ezintathu ezivunyiweyo ngokubanzi.
Intloko phakathi kwabo yi-AP Top 25 Poll ekhankanywe ngasentla, ehlanganiswe kwiqela leentatheli zezemidlalo ze-61 ezivela kwilizwe lonke.
Emva koko unayo i-USA Today Coaches Poll ebandakanya i-32 Division I intloko yabaqeqeshi, enye evela kwiinkomfa nganye ezifumana ibhidi ezenzekelayo kwitumente ye-NCAA. Kwaye olona kongeza lutsha yi-Student Media Poll, ephuma kwiYunivesithi yase-Indiana. Olu lukhetho lwabavoti beentatheli zabafundi ababhala imidlalo kwiyunivesiti yabo yonke imihla.
La maqela mathathu onke aya kujonga amaqela aneenqobo ezifanayo, ngakumbi phambi kokuba kudlale umdlalo omnye. Ngaphandle kokuba nabani na obeka inqaku, abeendaba kunye nabaqeqeshi ngokufanayo kufuneka basebenzise idatha efikelelekayo kwaye benze uqikelelo lwabo lwangaphambili.
Nazi ezinye zezona zixhaphakileyo:
Iziphumo zesizini edlulileyo
Iyavakala, akunjalo? Nabani na obegqwesileyo kwisizini edlulileyo uya kuba ulungile. Kulungile ... phakathi kokuphumelela, i-portal yokudlulisa, kunye nehlabathi le-basketball enye kwaye yenziwe, iirosta ezininzi zifumana uhlengahlengiso olubalulekileyo kwixesha elingekhoyo.
Xa iqela libetha phezulu kuluhlu lwepreseason, amathuba okuba ligcine uninzi lwabadlali balo abaphambili. INorth Carolina - eyaphoswa ngokupheleleyo kwitumente ye-NCAA - yakhethwa iNombolo ye-1 kuzo zonke ezintathu zokuvota kwangaphambili emva kokugqiba njengomgijimi kwi-2022 kunye nokubuyisela abaqalayo abane.
amava
Amagqala abalulekile kuwo nawuphi na umdlalo. Kodwa, kumdlalo onexesha elide kangako - ngaphezulu kwemidlalo engama-30 ngonyaka - ukuphumelela, amava makhulu.
I-basketball yabasetyhini yase-Iowa yenze eyona ndlela inde kwitumente kulo nyaka. Ngaphaya kwetalente kwiqela, abahlanu bokuqala bakaHawkeyes badlale imidlalo engama-92 kunye njengabaqalayo. Ayinakwenzeka loo nto kumdlalo wanamhlanje.
Akumangalisi ukuba iqela elinjalo linokwenza i-run run enzulu kwaye isizathu esikhulu sokuba i-Iowa ikhethwe phakathi kweNombolo ye-4 kunye ne-6 ngaphambi kwexesha.
Iklasi yokugaya eyomeleleyo
Ibhola yebhasikithi, ngokungathandabuzekiyo, ngumdlalo ohlangeneyo apho umntu omtsha anokuba nempembelelo enkulu. Iindawo zoluhlu olulinganiselweyo kunye nokunyuka kwabadlali abakulungeleyo kubone uninzi lweminyaka yokuqala ibe ziinkwenkwezi ezibalaseleyo ngoko nangoko.
Kwaye kubonakala kwii-polls. Iiklasi ezisibhozo kwi-10 eziphezulu zokugaya amadoda ziye zamelwa kuzo zontathu iivoti zangaphambi kwesizini.
Inqaku lenkwenkwezi
Abadlali bexesha elikhulu sesona sizathu sibalulekileyo sokuba sibukele i-basketball yasekholejini. Amaqela amane aphezulu amadoda aya kwixesha lonyaka abonise amagama amane amakhulu kwiligi (Armando Bacot-North Carolina, Drew Timme-Gonzaga, Marcus Sasser-Houston, kunye no-Oscar Tshiebwe-Kentucky).
Umdlali wesizwe olawulayo wonyaka u-Aliyah Boston's South Carolina wayephantse waba nguNombolo omxhelo mnye kuvoto lwabasetyhini lwangaphambi kwexesha, wafumana ama-1 kuma-85 eevoti ezinokuba kwindawo yokuqala kuzo zontathu iivoti.
Lohluke phi uvoto?
Iintatheli kunye nabaqeqeshi abanoxanduva lokulinganisa baya kusebenzisa indibaniselwano yezi zinto ngelixa besongeza ezabo zokuqiqa.
Intatheli okanye intatheli yabafundi egubungela iBig 12 imihla ngemihla inokubeka iqela elisuka kuloo nkomfa ngokwahlukileyo kuba banokubona konke ukuphakama nokuhla kwabo. Ukuba ilungu lemidiya yesizwe lihoye kuphela emva kokuphumelela okukhulu, kusenokwenzeka ukuba banokuligqithisa elo qela.
Ngokomzekelo, u-Kevin McNamara wayene-UConn ephezulu kunaye nabani na kwi-Poll ye-AP yangaphambi kwexesha kwi-15. UMcNamara ugubungela imidlalo eNew England esekelwe ngaphandle kwe-Providence, Rhode Island. Ibasketball yamadoda yeProvidence ikwiMpuma Enkulu kunye ne-UConn. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba wayebone ngaphezulu kweHuskies kunabalingane bakhe kwaye ujongeka bubulumko ngenxa yayo.
Kwelinye icala, umqeqeshi usenokutyekela ekubekeni iqela eliphakamileyo ukuba elo qela libetha elakhe iqela. Kwenza ukuba iqela lomqeqeshi libukeke lingcono ukuba ilahleko ikwiqela elomeleleyo ngelixa ikwasebenzisa ingqiqo, "Ewe, kufuneka balunge ukuba bayasibetha!"
Nangona sonke sisebenza ngedatha efanayo xa sijonga la maqela, akusoloko kuvumelana ngokupheleleyo. Umntu ngamnye ovotayo kolu lonyulo uzisa awabo amava kunye nokungakhethi cala okanye ubeka ubunzima bakhe kwizinto ezahlukeneyo.
Nanjengoko siye satsibela ngakumbi kuvoto olukhokelwa kuhlalutyo, uqikelelo aluphumelelanga kakhulu. I-KenPom ibe ngumgangatho wegolide kumanqanaba e-basketball ukusuka kumanani. Ibeka onke amaqela angama-363 e-NCAA ngokusekwe kumda olungelelanisiweyo wobuchule (ngokusekwe ekuhlaseleni nasekukhuseleni ukusebenza kakuhle ngokwezinto ezili-100 kunye nezinto zeqela kumdlalo ngamnye).
I-KenPom, ngokufanelekileyo, yayilumkele ngakumbi iNorth Carolina, ibeka i-9 preseason. Kodwa, yayine-UConn ephantsi njengaye nabani na, kwi-27.
Bezibekwe phi iintshatsheli zethu kwipreseason?
LSU- Abaqeqeshi No. 14, AP No. 16, Umfundi No. 17
UConn- Ufumene iivoti kodwa akafakwanga kuzo zontathu
Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, akukho mntu wayelungiselela iparade yoloyiso eStorrs okanye eBaton Rouge ekukhutshweni kovoto lwangaphambili. Kodwa, njengoko benditshilo kwangethuba, amaqela ebebonisa ukuba amanqanaba kunye novoto aluchanekanga ukusukela oko beza kuqala.
Babhentsisa ezinye zeembono eziphosakeleyo abavoti abanazo malunga neqela labo kunye nokuba yintoni efunekayo ukuze baphumelele ubuntshatsheli.
