ʻO Swish a i ʻole Miss: Ke kuleana o ka Data Bias ma NCAA Basketball Predictions
Ua lei aliʻi ke kau pōpeku kolepa 2023 i ʻelua mau poʻokela i manaʻo ʻole ʻia, me ka LSU wahine a me nā hui kāne kāne o UConn e hāpai ana i nā kīʻaha ma Dallas a me Houston, kēlā me kēia.
'Ōlelo wau ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia, no ka mea, ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kau, ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia kekahi o kēia mau kime he mea hoʻokūkū poʻokela. Hāʻawi ʻia nā mea ʻelua i 60-1 mau manawa e lanakila ai i ka mea holoʻokoʻa, a ʻaʻole i mahalo nui ʻia nā koho balota a me nā kumu aʻoaʻo.
Eia nō naʻe, ke hōʻike nei nā hui i ka hewa a me nā koho balota mai ko lākou hele mua ʻana mai i ka makahiki 1930. A ʻo ka noho ʻana ma luna o ka papa ʻaʻole ia e hōʻoiaʻiʻo i ka holomua.
Mai ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hoʻokūkū kinipōpō pōkā kāne i ka makahiki 1985, ʻeono wale nō mau kime i koho i ka preseason No. 1 ma ka AP Poll i lanakila i ka inoa. Ua aneane ʻoi aku ka hōʻino ma mua o ka pōmaikaʻi i kēlā manawa.
ʻEhia o kēia mau kūlana a me nā koho balota ma waho?
ʻOiai ua loaʻa iā mākou ka nui o nā kūlana i manaʻo maikaʻi ʻia e nā mea nūpepa e like me Charlie Creme a me Jeff Borzello o ESPN, ʻo Andy Katz o Big Ten Network, a me John Fanta ʻo Fox Sports, aia ʻekolu mau koho balota i ʻike nui ʻia.
ʻO ke poʻokela i waena o lākou ʻo ka AP Top 25 Poll i ʻōlelo ʻia, i hōʻuluʻulu ʻia mai kahi hui o 61 mau nūpepa haʻuki mai kēlā ʻaoʻao o ka ʻāina.
A laila, loaʻa iā ʻoe ka USA Today Coaches Poll i loaʻa iā 32 Division I poʻo kumu aʻoaʻo, hoʻokahi mai kēlā me kēia ʻaha kūkā e loaʻa i kahi koho maʻamau i ka hoʻokūkū NCAA. A ʻo ka mea hou hou ʻo ia ka Student Media Poll, holo i waho o ke Kulanui ʻo Indiana. He koho balota kēia o ka poʻe kākau moʻolelo haumāna e uhi ana i nā haʻuki ma kā lākou kulanui i kēlā me kēia lā.
E nānā kēia mau pūʻulu ʻekolu i nā hui me nā koina like, ʻoiai ma mua o ka pāʻani ʻana i hoʻokahi pāʻani. Me ka loaʻa ʻole o kahi helu, pono nā media a me nā kumu aʻo e hoʻohana i ka ʻikepili i hiki ke loaʻa a hana i kā lākou wānana mua.
Eia kekahi mau mea maʻamau:
Nā hualoaʻa kau mua
He kūpono ia? ʻO ka mea i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ke kau hope e like nō ia me ka maikaʻi. ʻAe… ma waena o ka puka ʻana, ka puka hoʻoili, a me ka honua o ka basketball hoʻokahi a hana ʻia, nui nā papa inoa e ʻike i nā loli nui i ka offseason.
Ke piʻi ka hui ma luna o ka papa preseason, ʻoi aku ka nui o kā lākou mau mea pāʻani koʻikoʻi. ʻO North Carolina - ka mea i nalo i ka hoʻokūkū NCAA - ua koho ʻia ʻo ia ka helu 1 no nā koho balota preseason ʻekolu ma hope o ka pau ʻana i ka lua ma 2022 a me ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i ʻehā mau mea hoʻomaka.
ka hoao ana
He mea koʻikoʻi ka poʻe koa i kēlā me kēia haʻuki. Akā, i loko o kahi haʻuki me kahi kau lōʻihi - ʻoi aku ma mua o 30 mau pāʻani i ka makahiki - e hoʻokō ai, ʻoi aku ka ʻike.
ʻO ka pōʻaleʻa wahine ʻo Iowa i holo lōʻihi loa i ka hoʻokūkū i kēia makahiki. Ma waho aʻe o ke kālena o ka hui, ua pāʻani pū ka ʻelima mua o Hawkeyes i 92 pāʻani ma ke ʻano he hoʻomaka. ʻAʻole lohe ʻia kēlā i ka pāʻani o kēia lā.
ʻAʻole ia he mea kupanaha e hiki i kahi hui e like me ia ke holo hohonu a he kumu nui ia i koho ʻia ai ʻo Iowa ma waena o ka helu 4 a me ka helu 6 ma mua o ke kau.
ʻO ka papa hoʻolālā ikaika
ʻO ka pōʻaleʻa, hiki ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia, ka haʻuki kolepa kahi e loaʻa ai i kahi keiki hou ka hopena. Ua ʻike nā wahi papa inoa liʻiliʻi a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā mea pāʻani mākaukau i nā makahiki mua i lilo i mau superstars koke.
A hōʻike ʻia ma nā koho balota. ʻEwalu o nā papa hoʻopaʻa kanaka kiʻekiʻe he 10 i hōʻike ʻia ma nā koho balota mua ʻekolu.
ʻO ke kumu hōkū
ʻO nā mea pāʻani wā nui ke kumu nui e nānā ai mākou i ka pōpōpō koleke. ʻO nā hui kāne ʻehā kiʻekiʻe e hele ana i kēia kau, ua hōʻike ʻia ʻehā o nā inoa nui loa o ka liona (Armando Bacot-North Carolina, Drew Timme-Gonzaga, Marcus Sasser-Houston, a me Oscar Tshiebwe-Kentucky).
ʻO ka mea pāʻani aupuni aliʻi o ka makahiki ʻo Aliyah Boston's South Carolina ua aneane like ia i ka helu 1 ma nā koho balota wahine preseason, loaʻa iā ia he 85 o 88 mau koho koho mua ma waena o nā koho balota ʻekolu.
Ma hea ka ʻokoʻa o nā koho balota?
E hoʻohana ka poʻe nūpepa a me nā kumu aʻoaʻo i ke kuleana no ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i kekahi hui o kēia mau mea me ka hoʻohui ʻana i kekahi o kā lākou manaʻo ponoʻī.
Hiki i ka mea kākau moʻolelo a i ʻole ka mea kākau moʻolelo haumāna e uhi ana i ka Big 12 i kēlā me kēia lā ke hoʻonohonoho ʻokoʻa i kahi hui mai kēlā hālāwai kūkā no ka mea ʻike paha lākou i ko lākou kiʻekiʻe a me nā haʻahaʻa. Inā hoʻolohe wale kekahi lālā media aupuni ma hope o ka lanakila nui ʻana, hiki paha iā lākou ke hoʻonui i kēlā hui.
No ka laʻana, ua loaʻa iā Kevin McNamara ʻo UConn ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa o kēlā me kēia ma ka preseason AP Poll ma 15. Ua uhi ʻo McNamara i nā haʻuki ma New England ma waho o Providence, Rhode Island. Aia ʻo Providence men's basketball ma ka Hikina Nui me UConn. Malia paha ua ʻike ʻo ia i nā Huskies ma mua o kona mau hoa a ʻoi aku ka naʻauao ma muli o ia.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, makemake paha ke kaʻi e hoʻokūkū i kahi hui kiʻekiʻe inā lanakila kēlā hui i kā lākou hui ponoʻī. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ke kime o ke kaʻi inā he pohō i kahi hui ikaika aʻe me ka hoʻohana pū ʻana i ke kumu kumu, "ʻAe, maikaʻi lākou inā lanakila lākou iā mākou!"
ʻOiai ke hana nei mākou a pau me ka nui o nā ʻikepili like i ka nānā ʻana i kēia mau hui, ʻaʻole ia he ʻae ʻae holoʻokoʻa. ʻO kēlā me kēia kanaka e koho ana i kēia mau koho balota e lawe mai i ko lākou ʻike ponoʻī a me ke kuhi ʻana a i ʻole ke kau ʻana i kā lākou kaumaha ma nā kumu like ʻole.
ʻOiai mākou i lele hou aku i ke koho balota alakaʻi analytic, ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ka holomua o nā wānana. Ua lilo ʻo KenPom i mea maʻamau gula ma nā papa pōʻaleʻa mai nā helu helu. Hoʻonohonoho ia i nā pūʻulu NCAA 363 a pau e pili ana i ka palena kūpono i hoʻoponopono ʻia (e pili ana i ka maikaʻi ʻino a me ka pale ʻana no nā waiwai 100 a me nā waiwai o ka hui i kēlā me kēia pāʻani).
ʻO KenPom, ʻoi aku ka makaʻala o North Carolina, ka helu ʻana i ka helu 9 preseason. Akā, loaʻa iā UConn ka haʻahaʻa e like me kekahi, ma 27.
Aia ma hea ko mākou poʻe poʻokela i ka preseason?
LSU- Kumu Helu 14, AP Helu 16, Haumana Helu 17
UConn- Loaʻa nā balota akā ʻaʻole i helu ʻia ma nā mea ʻekolu
ʻAʻole pono e ʻōlelo, ʻaʻohe mea e hoʻomākaukau ana i kahi parade lanakila ma Storrs a i ʻole Baton Rouge ma waho o nā hoʻokuʻu koho balota mua. Akā, e like me kaʻu i ʻōlelo mua ai, ua hōʻike hewa nā hui i nā pae a me nā koho balota mai ko lākou hele ʻana mai.
Hōʻike lākou i kekahi o nā manaʻo kuhi hewa e pili ana i kā lākou hui a me nā mea e pono ai lākou e lanakila i ka hoʻokūkū.
