Ukugembula kweSilicon Valley Bank nge-KPI's Led to Collapse yayo

Ukubaluleka kokuphathwa koshintsho kanye nokwengamela okufanele

Wonke umuntu uhlaziya umphumela wokwehluleka kwakamuva kwe-Silicon Valley Bank. AbakwaFed bazikhahlela ngokungaziboni izimpawu eziyisixwayiso ngaphambili. Abatshalizimali bakhathazekile ngokuthi amanye amabhange angase alandele. UKhongolose ubambe izigcawu ukuze baqonde kangcono ukuthi yini ngempela eyenze kwawa leli bhange.

Kungenziwa ingxabano yokuthi izimbangela zezinkinga ze-SVB wukucabanga okuyiphutha nokungaqondi kahle. Kokubili iFederal Reserve System kanye nabaphathi bangaphakathi bebhange bangasolwa ngokugada ngobudedengu. Ukucabanga okuyiphutha kufana kakhulu namaphutha engqondo enziwa umgembuli lapho elinganisela ubungozi bakhe kanye nenzuzo engaba khona. Kungokwengqondo. Kubonakala sengathi abaphathi be-SVB kungenzeka babe yisisulu sokucabanga okufanayo ongase ukubone esondweni le-roulette.

Umfanekiso omuhle walolo hlobo lokucabanga wabonakala ngobunye ubusuku 1863 eMonte Carlo Casino, eMonaco. Izindaba zokuwina kwenganekwane nokulahlekelwa okuyinhlekelele e-Monte Carlo ziyinganekwane. Ukwazi ukuthi uzohamba nini, omunye wabawine abakhulu bekhasino ugoduke namadola angaphezu kwesigidi edlala i-roulette. Omunye umgembuli, uCharles Wells, wathola isidlaliso esithi "Indoda eyagqekeza ibhange e-Monte Carlo" lapho yenza lokho kanye izikhathi ezingu-6 ezinsukwini ezingu-3 ngo-1891, futhi ku-roulette.^[1]

("Etafuleni leRoulette eMonte Carlo" u-Edvard Munch, ngo-1892 Umthombo.)

Abagembula

Ngomhla ziyi-18 ku-Agasti, 1913 abadlali etafuleni le-roulette baphathwe umcimbi ongavamile kunokuwina ilotho ye-Powerball. Ngokuvamile okukhonjwa kukho njengesibonelo sama-odds amade, ibhola elimhlophe lahlala kumnyama izikhathi ezingu-26 zilandelana. Phakathi nalokho kugijima okungavamile, abagembuli babeqiniseka ukuthi umbala obomvu wawufanele. Isibonelo, ngemuva kokugijima kwe-5 noma i-10 emnyama, ukubeka imali yakho phansi kubomvu kuyinto eqinisekile. Lokho kungukukhohlisa komgembuli. Ama-franc amaningi alahlekile ngalolo suku njengoba ayephindaphindeka kabili ukubheja ngakunye, ngokuqiniseka ngokwengeziwe nge-spin ngayinye ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ashaye kakhulu.

Amathuba okuthi ibhola le-roulette lihlale kumnyama (noma obomvu) angaphansi kuka-50%. (38 slots on the roulette wheel zihlukaniswe 16 red, 16 black, a green 0 and a green 00.) I-spin ngayinye izimele. Ayithonywa yi-spin ngaphambi kwayo. Ngakho-ke, yonke i-spin inamathuba afanayo ncamashi. Cishe, ngaphesheya kwekhasino phansi ematafuleni Blackjack, ukucabanga okuphambene kwakudlalwa. Umdlali ushaye u-17 wakhuphula u-4. Ume ku-15 bese umthengisi eqhuma. Udweba u-19 bese ehlula u-17 womthengisi. Unesandla esishisayo. Angeke alahlekelwe. Ukubheja ngakunye akubekayo kukhudlwana. Usekuhambeni. Lokhu futhi kuwukukhohlisa komgembuli.

Iqiniso liwukuthi kushisa noma kubanda, “Lady Luck” noma “Miss Fortune”, amathuba awashintshi. Amathuba okupheqa uhlamvu lwemali bese luhlala emakhanda ngemva kokuphonsa imisila emi-5 lufana ncamashi nelokuqala. Ngokufanayo nesondo le-roulette. Ngokufanayo namakhadi.

Abatshalizimali

Ngokusobala, abatshalizimali bacabanga njengabagembuli. Kudingeka bakhunjuzwe ekupheleni kwaso sonke isikhangiso sezinsizakalo zezezimali ukuthi "ukusebenza kwangaphambili akusona isibonakaliso noma isiqinisekiso semiphumela yesikhathi esizayo." Okwakamuva umbiko iqinisekise ukuthi imiphumela "ihambisana nombono wokuthi ukusebenza komlando kuhlotshaniswa ngokungahleliwe nokusebenza kwesikhathi esizayo."

Izincwajana zemininingwane ezomnotho baye baqinisekisa lokhu kuphawula kubatshalizimali abaphethe amasheya alahlekelwa inani futhi athengise amasheya azuzayo. Lokhu kuziphatha kuholela ekuthengiseni abawinile kusenesikhathi futhi kubambe abahluliwe isikhathi eside kakhulu. Ukucabanga komtshali-zimali okungalungile ukuthi kungakhathaliseki ukuthi isitoko senza kahle noma kabi, i-tide izophenduka. Ngamanye amazwi, inkambiso yentengo yesitoko akuyona ukuphela kwesici okufanele sinqume isu lakho lokutshala imali.

Ababhange

Abamabhange nabo abavikelekile ekucabangeni okuyiphutha. Abaphathi ku ISilicon Valley Bank wadlala isandla esithile sezimali. Abaphathi kwa-SVB basebenzise uhlelo lapho bafihle khona amamethrikhi engozi ayinhloko. Enye yezindlela amabhange enza ngayo imali ngokutshala ezimpahleni zesikhathi eside njengamabhondi, ama-mortgages noma izikweletu. Ibhange lizuza imali lidlala ukusabalala kwezinga lenzalo elitholwe kulezo zimpahla kanye nezinga lenzalo elikhokhwa ezikweletini zesikhathi esifushane. I-SVB yenze ukubheja okukhulu kumabhondi esikhathi eside.

Amabhange angaphansi kwama-ejensi alawulayo afana ne-Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) eqapha amamethrikhi engozi ayinhloko futhi ikhawulele inani lemali angaba nayo kunoma iyiphi indawo. Amabhange kulindeleke ukuthi abe nezinqubo eziqinile zokulawula ubungozi, okuhlanganisa nokuhlola kanye ukuqapha izingozi ehambisana nokutshalwa kwezimali kwabo. Kudingeka ukuthi benze izivivinyo zokucindezeleka ukuze bahlole umthelela ongaba khona wezimo zomnotho ezimbi empilweni yabo yezezimali. Ama-KPI aqagelayo e-SVB abonise ukuthi kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu wezezimali ekusabalaleni abekudlalayo uma kungaba nokunyuka kwamazinga enzalo. Esikhaleni sezobuchwepheshe, ibhange bekungadingeki ukuthi libike “ngokulahleka kwephepha” kwephothifoliyo yezikweletu ngoba iningi lazo lalibhekwa njengokuthi “ligcinelwe ukuvuthwa.”

Isinyathelo esifanele esasizothathwa bekuwukunciphisa ubungozi bebhange obuhlobene nezilinganiso zenzalo futhi lihlukaniseke ngokutshala imali kwenye indawo, njengamasevisi okushintshanisa imali yangaphandle, ukugibela izinkokhelo zekhadi lesikweletu noma ukuyeka ukunikeza amathosta.

Esikhundleni salokho, abenzi bezinqumo abamqoka bacabanga ukuthi impumelelo yebhange izoqhubeka. Nakulokhu, ubuqili bomgembuli. Abaphathi eSilicon Valley Bank bashintshe ifomula yama-KPI. Ngakho-ke, bathatha ilambu elibomvu elalizobonisa ubungozi kanye noshintsho lwesu futhi balipenda libe luhlaza. Lapho befika ezimpambanweni zomgwaqo ezinophawu lwethrafikhi olupendiwe oluluhlaza lapho amanani enzalo ngokungenakugwenywa eqala ukwenyuka kwakungekho ababengakwenza ngaphandle kokuqala ukudayisa impahla - belahlekelwa! Ukudayiswa kwaleli bhange kwezimpahla zalo zokuvikela ukuze kuqoqwe imali kuholele ekulahlekeni kwesikhathi esifushane kuka-$1.8 billion. Lokhu kwabathusa abafake imali ebhange. Akekho owayecabanga ukuthi imali yabo yayiphephile. Amakhasimende akhiphe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-42 ngosuku olulodwa. Boom! Ngobusuku bonke abaFed bangena balawula.

Babheja ibhange (ngokoqobo) becabanga ukuthi banesandla esishisayo futhi i-spin elandelayo yesondo le-roulette izovela ibe mnyama futhi.

Analysis

I-post mortem embule ukuthi ngaphezu kwengxenye yezimpahla zayo ziboshelwe ezibambiso zesikhathi eside. Lokho kanye nokukhula okusheshayo okuxhumene ne-Silicon Valley tech kanye neziqalo zezempilo kuholele ekuchayekeni okukhulu. Ngokuphathelene nokulandela iseluleko salo mayelana nokuhlukahluka, ibhange liphethe u-4% kuphela wezimpahla zalo kuma-akhawunti angenayo inzalo kuyilapho likhokha kakhulu kunamanye amabhange ngediphozithi enenzalo.

Isixazululo

Isixazululo sokugcina amabhange engeziwe elandela ezinyathelweni zeSilicon Valley Bank sikabili.

1. Ukuqwashisa. Abamabhange, njengabatshalizimali nabagembuli, badinga ukuqaphela amaphutha anengqondo ubuchopho bethu obungawadlala kithi. Ukuqonda nokwamukela ukuthi unenkinga kuyisinyathelo sokuqala sokuxazulula inkinga.
2. Izivikelo. Ubuchwepheshe bungadlala indima ebalulekile ukugcina ukwehluleka okufana nalokhu kungenzeki. Umthetho we-Sarbanes-Oxley ka-2002 wasungulwa, ngokwengxenye, ukuvikela umphakathi ekungaphenduleni kwezimali. Izikhungo zezimali ziyacwaningwa ngokulawulwa kwazo kwangaphakathi. Izilawuli zangaphakathi yizinqubomgomo nezinqubo “zokuqinisekisa ubuqotho bolwazi lwezezimali kanye nokubalwa kwezimali, ukuthuthukisa ukuziphendulela nokuvimbela ukukhwabanisa.”

Amabhange kufanele asungule aqinile izinhlelo zokulawula zangaphakathi ukuqinisekisa ukunemba nokuthembeka kokubikwa kwezezimali. Lokhu kungabandakanya ukusebenzisa izilawuli ezizenzakalelayo, ukuhlukanisa imisebenzi, kanye nokusungula umsebenzi wokucwaninga ozimele ukuze kuhlonzwe ubuthakathaka nokuqinisekisa ukuthotshelwa kwemithetho. Ubuchwepheshe abukwazi ukumiselela izilawuli zangaphakathi eziqinile, kodwa bungasiza ukuziphoqelela. Njengethuluzi, ubuchwepheshe bungaqinisekisa ukuthi amasheke namabhalansi ayalandelwa.

Ubuchwepheshe kufanele bube yinhliziyo yokuqapha ukubusa nokulawula futhi kufanele bube yingxenye yazo zonke izinhlelo zokulawula ubungozi. Ku-Federal Reserve Bank ukuhlolwa, lokhu kwaba ubuthakathaka obuyinhloko obunesandla ekushoneni kwe-SVB. Amasistimu ahlinzeka ngolwazi mayelana nezinguquko kudatha abalulekile, hhayi ekubuseni kuphela, kodwa ekhonweni lokwenza ukuhlaziya kwe-forensic ngemva kweqiniso.

Shintsha ukuphathwa kuyinqubo yokuhlela, ukusebenzisa, nokulawula izinguquko ezinhlelweni zesofthiwe ngendlela ehlelekile nehlelekile. Njengoba sike saveza kwenye indawo mayelana nezimboni ezingaphansi kweSarbanes-Oxley,

“Enye yezidingo ezibalulekile zokuthobela uMthetho we-Sarbanes-Oxley iwukuchaza izilawuli ezikhona nokuthi izinguquko kudatha noma izinhlelo zokusebenza kufanele zirekhodwe kanjani ngendlela ehlelekile. Ngamanye amazwi, isiyalo se-Change Management. Ukuphepha, idatha kanye nokufinyelela kwesofthiwe kudinga ukugadwa, kanye nokuthi izinhlelo ze-IT azisebenzi kahle yini. Ukuthobela umthetho akuncikile ekuchazeni izinqubomgomo nezinqubo zokuvikela imvelo kuphela, kodwa futhi nasekukwenzeni futhi ekugcineni ukwazi ukufakazela ukuthi sekwenzekile. Njengochungechunge lobufakazi bamaphoyisa, ukuthobela iSarbanes-Oxley kunamandla njengesixhumanisi esibuthakathaka kakhulu. "

Kungashiwo okufanayo nangemithetho yasebhange, kodwa nakakhulu.

Izilawuli kufanele zibe khona ukuze uvikeleke kunoma iyiphi eyodwa umlingisi omubi. Izinguquko kufanele zifundeke. Abacwaningi mabhuku bangaphakathi, kanye nabahloli bamabhuku bangaphandle nabalawuli, kufanele bakwazi ukwakha kabusha uchungechunge lwezehlakalo futhi baqinisekise ukuthi kulandelwe izinqubo ezifanele. Ngokusebenzisa lezi zincomo zokulawula kwangaphakathi kanye noshintsho lokuphatha, amabhange anganciphisa ubungozi, aqinisekise ukuthotshelwa kwezidingo zokulawula, futhi ekugcineni avimbele ukwehluleka. (Isithombe: Umlingisi omubi.)

Ngokulawulwa kwenguqulo okufanele nobuchwepheshe bokulawula ushintsho endaweni yokuqapha izinguquko kumamethrikhi afana nama-KPI, nezinqubo ezikhona zokugunyaza nokusayina izinguquko, ukwehluleka okuyinhlekelele kwe-SVB mancane amathuba okuthi kuphindwe kwamanye amabhange. Ngamafuphi, ukuziphendulela kungaphoqelelwa. Izinguquko kumamethrikhi angukhiye kufanele zilandele inqubo. Ubani owenze lolu shintsho? Lwaluyini ushintsho? Futhi lwenziwa nini ushintsho? Ngalezi zakhi zedatha ezirekhodwa ngokuzenzakalela, kungase kube nesilingo esincane sokuzama ukudlula izilawuli zangaphakathi.

Okubhekwayo

1. Imodeli yengozi ye-Silicon Valley Bank ikhanye ngokubomvu. Ngakho abaphathi bayo bayishintshile, iWashington Post
2. Kungani sicabanga ukuthi isigameko esingahleliwe maningi noma mancane amathuba okuthi senzeke uma senzeka izikhathi ezimbalwa esikhathini esidlule? Ilebhu Yezinqumo
3. Ukuhlolwa kwesidumbu okufakwe kubaphathi bebhange le-SVB - kanye nokwengamela kwayo, i-CNN
4. Ukubuyekezwa Kokuqondisa Nokulawulwa Kwe-Federal Reserve ye-Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve System
5. I-Silicon Valley Bank Iwa kanye Ne-Polycrisis, Forbes
6. Ucwaningo Lufakazela Imiphumela Edlule Ungabikezeli Imiphumela Yekusasa, Forbes
7. Amaqiniso angaziwa ngeMonaco: Casino de Monte-Carlo, Sawubona Monaco
8. Izilawuli Zangaphakathi: Incazelo, Izinhlobo, Nokubaluleka, Investopedia

1. U-Wells wafa empofu ngo-1926. ↑