Swish ko Miss: Matsayin Bias Data a Hasashen Kwallon Kwando na NCAA
Gasar kwando ta kwaleji ta 2023 ta lashe zakara guda biyu da ba a zata ba, inda kungiyoyin mata na LSU da UConn suka dauki kofin a Dallas da Houston, bi da bi.
Na ce ba zato ba tsammani domin, kafin a fara kakar wasa, ba a yi tunanin ko daya daga cikin wadannan kungiyoyin a matsayin mai neman kambu. Dukansu an ba su damar 60-1 don cin nasara duka, kuma kafofin watsa labaru da masu horar da 'yan wasa ba su ba su girma sosai ba.
Har yanzu, ƙungiyoyi suna tabbatar da kima da ƙididdiga ba daidai ba tun lokacin da suka fara fitowa a cikin 1930s. Kuma kasancewa saman matsayi baya bada garantin nasara.
Tun bayan da aka fadada gasar kwallon kwando ta maza a shekarar 1985, kungiyoyi shida ne kawai suka kasance a matsayi na 1 a preseason na daya a zaben AP Poll ne suka lashe kambun. Kusan ya fi albarka a wannan lokacin.
Nawa ne daga cikin waɗannan ƙididdiga da zaɓen suka fito a can?
Ko da yake muna da damar yin amfani da tarin manyan martaba daga kowane ɗan jarida kamar ESPN's Charlie Creme da Jeff Borzello, Andy Katz na Big Ten Network, da John Fanta na Wasannin Fox, akwai kuri'u uku da aka amince da su sosai.
Babban daga cikinsu shi ne na AP Top 25 Poll, wanda aka tattara daga ƙungiyar 'yan jaridun wasanni 61 daga ko'ina cikin ƙasar.
Sannan kuna da Amurka a Yau Coaches Poll wanda ya ƙunshi manyan masu horarwa na 32 Division I, ɗaya daga kowane taron da ke karɓar tayin kai tsaye zuwa gasar NCAA. Kuma sabon ƙari shine Ƙididdigar Ƙididdigar Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararru, wadda ta ƙare daga Jami'ar Indiana. Wannan kuri'a ce ta dalibai 'yan jarida masu jefa kuri'a da ke yada wasanni a jami'ar su ta yau da kullum.
Wadannan rukunoni guda uku duk za su kalli kungiyoyi masu irin wannan sharudda, musamman kafin a buga wasa daya. Ba tare da kowa ya zira maƙiyi ba, kafofin watsa labarai da masu horarwa dole ne su yi amfani da bayanan da ake iya samu kuma su yi hasashen farkon su.
Ga wasu daga cikin mafi yawansu:
Sakamakon kakar wasan baya
Yana da hankali ko? Duk wanda ya fi kyau a kakar wasan da ta gabata zai yiwu ya kasance mai kyau. To...tsakanin kammala karatun digiri, tashar canja wuri, da duniyar wasan ƙwallon kwando guda ɗaya da aikatawa, ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƴan wasa da yawa waɗanda ke fuskantar ƙarshen kakar wasa.
Lokacin da ƙungiya ta kai saman matakin preseason, rashin daidaito shine sun riƙe yawancin manyan 'yan wasan su. North Carolina - wanda ya rasa gasar NCAA gaba daya - an zaba ta 1 don dukkanin zabukan preseason guda uku bayan kammalawa a matsayin wanda ya zo na biyu a 2022 kuma ya dawo da masu farawa hudu.
Experience
Tsohon soja suna da mahimmanci ga kowane wasa. Amma, a cikin wasanni tare da irin wannan lokaci mai tsawo - sama da wasanni 30 a shekara - don samun nasara, kwarewa ya fi girma.
Wasan kwando na mata na Iowa ya kasance mafi dadewa a gasar a bana. Bayan hazaka a cikin ƙungiyar, biyar na farko na Hawkeyes sun buga wasanni 92 tare a matsayin masu farawa. Ba a taba ganin irin wannan ba a wasan na yau.
Ba abin mamaki ba ne ƙungiyar irin wannan na iya yin zurfafa gudu kuma yana da babban dalilin da aka zaba Iowa tsakanin lamba 4 da na 6 kafin kakar wasa.
Ajin daukar ma'aikata mai karfi
Ƙwallon kwando, a zahirance, wasanni ne na koleji inda sabobin zai iya yin tasiri sosai. Iyakantattun wurare da haɓakar ƴan wasa masu shiri sun ga yawancin shekarun farko sun zama fitattun taurarin nan take.
Kuma hakan ya nuna a rumfunan zabe. Takwas daga cikin manyan azuzuwan daukar ma'aikata maza 10 sun samu wakilci a dukkan zabukan share fage guda uku.
Factor factor
’Yan wasan da suka yi girma lokaci ne babban dalilin da muke kallon ƙwallon kwando na kwaleji. Ƙungiyoyin maza huɗu na saman da ke shiga kakar wasa sun ƙunshi manyan sunaye huɗu a gasar (Armando Bacot-North Carolina, Drew Timme-Gonzaga, Marcus Sasser-Houston, da Oscar Tshiebwe-Kentucky).
'Yar wasan kwallon kafa ta kasar Aliyah Boston ta South Carolina ta kusan zama ta daya a cikin kuri'un mata na preseason, inda ta samu kuri'u 1 daga cikin 85 da za a yi a matakin farko a cikin rumfunan zabe uku.
A ina ne zaben ya bambanta?
'Yan jarida da kociyoyin da ke da alhakin kima za su yi amfani da wasu hade da waɗannan abubuwan yayin da suke ƙara wasu dalilai na kansu.
Dan jarida ko ɗalibi ɗan jaridar da ke rufe Big 12 a kowace rana na iya sanya ƙungiyar daga waccan taron daban saboda suna iya ganin duk girmansu da ƙarancinsu. Idan memba na kafofin watsa labarai na kasa yana mai da hankali ne kawai bayan babban nasara, da alama za su iya wuce gona da iri.
Alal misali, Kevin McNamara yana da UConn mafi girma na kowa a cikin preseason AP Poll a 15. McNamara ya rufe wasanni a New England tushen daga Providence, Rhode Island. Kwando na maza na Providence yana cikin Babban Gabas tare da UConn. Da alama zai ga mafi yawan Huskies fiye da takwarorinsa kuma ya dubi duk mai hikima saboda shi.
A gefe guda kuma, koci zai iya karkata zuwa matsayi mafi girma idan kungiyar ta doke nata. Yana sa ƙungiyar kocin ta yi kyau idan rashin nasara ya kasance ga ƙungiyar da ta fi ƙarfi yayin da kuma ta yi amfani da dalilin, "To, dole ne su yi kyau idan sun doke mu!"
Kodayake duk muna aiki tare da bayanai iri ɗaya da yawa lokacin kallon waɗannan ƙungiyoyin, ba koyaushe ba ne gabaɗayan yarjejeniya. Duk mutumin da ya kada kuri'a a kan wadannan zabukan ya kawo nasa kwarewa da son zuciya ko kuma sanya nauyin kansa a kan abubuwa daban-daban.
Ko da mun ci gaba da yin tsalle-tsalle cikin jefa ƙuri'a bisa jagorancin nazari, hasashen bai yi nasara sosai ba. KenPom ya zama ma'aunin gwal a cikin martabar kwando daga kididdiga. Ya ba da matsayi ga duk ƙungiyoyin NCAA 363 dangane da daidaitawar iya aiki (dangane da haɓakar rashin ƙarfi da tsaro a kowane kayan 100 da kayan ƙungiya kowane wasa).
KenPom ya kasance, a gaskiya, ya fi damuwa da Arewacin Carolina, inda ya ba shi matsayi na 9 preseason. Amma, yana da UConn ƙasa da kowa, a 27.
A ina ne zakarun mu suka kasance a matsayin preseason?
LSU- Kociyoyin No. 14, AP No. 16, Student No. 17
UConn- Ya karɓi ƙuri'u amma ba a sami kima ba a cikin duka ukun
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, babu wanda ke shirin faretin nasara a Storrs ko Baton Rouge a farkon fitowar zaɓen. Amma, kamar yadda na fada tun da wuri, ƙungiyoyi suna tabbatar da matsayi da jefa ƙuri'a ba daidai ba tun lokacin da suka fara zagaye.
Suna fallasa wasu kura-kuran da masu jefa kuri'a ke da shi game da kungiyarsu da kuma abin da ake bukata don lashe gasar.
