Disclaimer
Usadarike ndima iyi. Ndinozeza kupinda mumvura idzi dzine nharo, kazhinji dzezvematongerwo enyika, asi imwe pfungwa yakauya kwandiri ndichifamba nembwa yangu, Demic. Ndakawana MD uye ndanga ndiri mune imwe nzira yehutano kana kubvunza kubvira. Kwemakore 20+ apfuura, ndakadzidza kufunga kwakadzama. Kune IBM timu yandinokurukura muchinyorwa, ndakaita seData Scientist. Ndinoti ndinotaura mitauro yemishonga neye data. Ini handisi epidemiologist kana nyanzvi yehutano hweveruzhinji. Izvi hazvina kuitirwa kudzivirira kana kutsoropodza chero munhu kana mutemo. Zvandinopa pano zvinongoonekwa chete. Itarisiro yangu kumutsa pfungwa dzenyu, zvakare.
Kurwisa Zika NeData
Kutanga, ruzivo rwangu. Muna 2017, ndakasarudzwa neIBM kubva kune vanopfuura 2000 vanyoreri, kuti nditore chikamu mupro bono yeruzhinji chirongwa chehutano. Boka revashanu vedu takatumirwa kunyika yePanama kwemwedzi wose kuti tishande nebazi rehutano hwevanhu ikoko. Basa redu raive rekugadzira a digital chishandiso chinogonesa kuita sarudzo nekukurumidza uye kunoshanda zvine chekuita nezvirwere zvinotapuriranwa neumhutu; chikuru chiri Zika.
Mhinduro yacho yaive pombi yekugovana ruzivo pakati pevaongorori vemunda nevagadziri vemitemo kudzora Zika nezvimwe zvirwere zvinotapukira. Mune mamwe mazwi, isu takagadzira nharembozha yekutsiva yavo yekare yemanyorero maitiro ekutumira vector vanoongorora mumunda. Nepanguva, data rakarurama rakadzora saizi yekubuda uye nguva nekukwanisa kunanga zvine hungwaru nzvimbo - funga guta block - inoda kugadziriswa.
Kubva panguva iyoyo, denda reZika rakaenderera mberi.
Kuita kwevanhu hakuna kupedza denda reZika. Nharaunda yehutano yeveruzhinji yakashanda kuitora, kuburikidza nekuongorora, dzidzo uye kuraira kwekufamba. Asi pakupedzisira, hutachiona hwakamhanya, hukabata chikamu chikuru chevanhu, uye kusadzivirirwa kwemombe kwakakura, nokudaro kumisa kupararira. Nhasi, Zika inoonekwa seyakapararira kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzepasi nekubuda kwenguva.
Mune zvimwe zve kutanga uye zvirwere zvinouraya zvakanyanya anenge munhu wese airwara akafa. WIth Zika, "Kana chikamu chikuru chevanhu chabatwa, havana hutachiona uye vanodzivirira vamwe vanhu kuti vasatapukirwa [hapana mushonga wekudzivirira Zika]." Ndizvo zvakaitika naZika. Kubuda kwacho kwapera muAmerica uye chiitiko cheZika ikozvino muna 2021 chakaderera. Ndiyo nhau huru! Zika yakakwira muna 2016 sezvo vakuru vePanama vakakumbira IBM kutumira rubatsiro kurwisa umhutu. Zika Transmission | Zika Virus | CDC
Kuwirirana hakusi kukonzera, asi mushure mekushanya kwedu kuPanama, denda reZika rakaramba richidzikira. Kune dzimwe nguva kubuda, asi hazvisati zvasvika padanho rakafanana rekushushikana. Vamwe vanotarisira kuti pendulum idzoke shure sezvo kusadzivirirwa kwechisikigo kunopera uye vanhu vasina kuvhenekwa vanotamira kuZika nzvimbo dzine njodzi.
Zika uye COVID-19 Pandemic Parallels
Izvi zvine hukama sei neCOVID-19? Ose pathogen inokonzeresa COVID-19 neZika mavhairasi. Ivo vane nzira dzakasiyana dzekutanga dzekutapurirana. Zika inonyanya kutapuriranwa kubva kuumhutu kuenda kuvanhu. Pane mikana yekutapurirana kwevanhu kubva kumunhu, asi nzira huru yekutapurirana iri kubva kuumhutu.
Kune iyo coronavirus, zvakaratidzwa kuti dzimwe mhuka, senge batsva uye deer, ita kutakura utachiona, asi chimiro chikuru che Kutumira ari munhu-ku-munhu.
Nezvirwere zvinotakurwa neumhutu (Zika, Chikungunya, Dengue fever), chimwe chinangwa chebazi rezvehutano hwePanama chaive chekudzikisira kuratidzwa kwehutachiona nekudzikisa kuratidzwa kune vector. MuUS, kuwedzera kune yakakurumidza kugadzirwa yekudzivirira, iyo hutano hweveruzhinji matanho ekugadzirisa COVID anosanganisira kudzikisira kuratidzwa uye kudzikisira kupararira kune vamwe. Matanho ekuderedza kune avo vari panjodzi huru anosanganisira masking, kureba kwemuviri, kuzviparadzanisa nevamwe uye kuvhara mbariro kare.
Kuvapo kwezvirwere zvese zviri zviviri kunoenderana ... ok, pamwe apa ndipo pazvinoita nharo. Kuwedzera kune dzidzo uye kugovera data, zvinangwa zvehutano hweveruzhinji zvekudzivirira zvakakomba mhedzisiro zvinogona kutariswa 1. kupedzwa kwehutachiona, 2. kupedzwa kwevector, 3. vaccine / kuchengetedzwa kwevanotambura zvakanyanya (vanhu vari panjodzi huru. kuitira mhedzisiro yakaipa), 4. kudzivirirwa kwemombe, kana 5. kumwe kusanganiswa kwezviri pamusoro.
Nekuda kwemavekita mune dzimwe mhuka, hazvibviri kubvisa mavhairasi aya (kunze kwekunge watanga kubaya umhutu nezviremwaremwa, ndinofungidzira). Ini ndinofunga zvakare hazvina musoro kutaura nezvekubvisa mavheji, kana. Mosquitos inonetsa, kunze kwekutakura zvirwere zvinokuvadza, asi ndine chokwadi kuti vanoshumira chimwe chinhu chinobatsira chinangwa. Handikwanise kufungidzira kuita kuti hupenyu hutsakatike nekuti zvinonetsa vanhu.
Saka, ngatitaurei nezve jekiseni/kudzivirira kwemapoka ane njodzi huru uye kudzivirira kwemombe. Zviripachena, tatokwana mudenda iri zvekuti vakuru vehutano nehurumende vakatoita sarudzo idzi uye vafunga nzira yekuita. Ini handisi wechipiri kufungidzira nzira kana kukanda matombo nekutarisa kwakakwana.
Vanhu vane njodzi yepamusoro vanosanganisira vanhu vakuru vane makore 65 zvichikwira uye avo vane zvirwere zvakakomba; zvinhu zvakaita semoyo, chirwere cheshuga, kufutisa, immunocompromised, etc. Kune avo vatingawedzera vakadzi vane pamuviri yeZika nekuti inogona kutamiswa intrautero.
Herd immune ndipo apo huwandu hwehuwandu hunosvika chikamu chezana chevanhu vanodzivirirwa kubva kuchirwere kungave nejekiseni kana kuburikidza nehutachiona hwepanyama. Panguva iyoyo, kune avo vasina kudzivirirwa, njodzi yechirwere yakaderera, nokuti kune vashoma vatakuri. Nokudaro, avo vari panjodzi huru vanodzivirirwa neavo vakamboratidzirwa. Gakava rinoramba riri pamusoro peicho chikamu chechokwadi chehuwandu (vakabaiwa + vakadzoserwa nemasoja ekudzivirira chirwere) chaizodiwa kuita kusadzivirirwa kwemombe kune coronavirus.
Hondo muPanama
Ne IBM's Zika initiative muPanama, takakwanisa kugadzira chaiyo-nguva-yakavakirwa nharembozha ine geolocation yekumaka, iyo inogona kuderedza kuomarara uye nguva yekubuda kana yaitwa zvizere. Nekutsiva rekodhi-yakanyanya uye kukanganisa-kurekodha uye kushuma, iyo data yakasvika kune vanoita sarudzo mumaawa panzvimbo pemavhiki. Vakuru vehutano hweveruzhinji padanho renyika vakakwanisa kuenzanisa mishumo yenguva chaiyo yenzvimbo dzeumhutu dzinotakura zvirwere nekuzivisa chaiko kwezviitiko zvekiriniki muchipatara. Muhondo yekurwisa utachiona hweZika, vakuru vakuru ava vakabva vaendesa zviwanikwa kunzvimbo idzodzo dzekupedza humhutu munzvimbo iyi.
Saka, pane abroad brashi nzira yekurwisa chirwere, vakaisa nhamburiko dzavo munzvimbo dzine dambudziko nenzvimbo dzine dambudziko. Mukuita izvi, vaikwanisa kutarisa zviwanikwa uye vakakwanisa kukurumidza kudzima nzvimbo dzinopisa.
Nezvose izvo semashure, ndichaedza kudhirowa kumwe kufanana pakati peZika denda uye denda redu razvino reCOVID. Poshi kudzidza muJournal of Midwifery & Women's Health yakaita ongororo yezvinyorwa zvekiriniki uye yakaratidza kuti, "Pane kufanana kukuru pakati pechirwere che[Zika virus] neCCIDID-19 maererano nemaitiro mashoma ekuongorora, marapirwo, uye kusavimbika." Mumadenda ese ari maviri, varwere nevarapi vakashaya ruzivo rwekuita sarudzo dzine ruzivo. Mameseji ezvehutano hweveruzhinji aigara achipokana mukati mesangano rimwechete. Disinformation yakaparadzirwa musocial media mapuratifomu enguva yedenda rega rega. Nharo dzakakomba dzesayenzi dzakatotungamirira kudzidziso dzokurangana. Hazvina kuoma kufungidzira kuti imwe neimwe yeiyi yakanganisa mhinduro kune hutachiona mune vari panjodzi kana vanhu vane njodzi.
Kuenzanisa kweZika Virus uye COVID-19: Clinical Overview uye Veruzhinji Health Messaging
| Chirwere cheZika Virus | COVID19 | |
|---|---|---|
| Vector | Flavivirus: vector Aedes aegypti uye Aedes albopictus mosquito 3 | Coronavirus: madonhwe, fomites 74 |
| kufamba | Umhutu ndiwo mavector ekutanga
Kutapurirana pabonde 10 Kuendeswa neropa, kuratidzwa kwerabhoritari 9 |
Kuparadzirwa nemadonhwe ekufema 74
Zvichida kutapurirana nendege 75 |
| Vertical transmission panguva yekuzvitakura | Kutapurirana kwakasimba kubva kumunhu ane pamuviri kuenda kumwana kunoitika, uye hutachiona hwekuzvarwa hunogona kuitika 9 | Vertical transmission/congenital infection hazviite 76 |
| zviratidzo | Kazhinji asymptomatic; Zviratidzo zvefuruwenza zvakadai sefivha, arthralgia, rash, uye conjunctivitis 3 | Asymptomatic; zvakare inotevedzera yakajairika rhinorrhea uye physiologic dyspnea yekuzvitakura 65 |
| Kuongorora kwekuongorora | RT-PCR, NAAT, PRNT, IgM serologies 32
Nhamba yepamusoro yezvakaipa zvenhema uye zvakanaka 26 Cross-reaction ye immunoglobulin serologies nemamwe endemic flaviviruses, senge dengue fever virus. 26 Perinatal diagnostic inogumira nekunzwa uye chaiyo ye ultrasound yekuona kukuvara kwehutachiona 20 |
RT-PCR, NAAT, IgM serologies 42
Sensitivity inosiyana zvichienderana nenguva kubva pakuratidzwa, sampling tekinoroji, sampuli sosi 76 Rapid antigen bvunzo (COVID-19 Ag Respi-Strip) iripo, asi pane zviri kunetsa nezve chokwadi, huchokwadi, uye kuita kwavo. 76 Kuenderera mberi nekushaikwa kwekuyedza kugona uye marabhoritari reagents 42 |
| Therapeutics | Kutsigira kutarisirwa
Congenital Zika syndrome inoda kutarisirwa kwakasarudzika, kurapwa kwemuviri, pharmaco-therapeutics yekubatwa-batwa, kururamisa/prosthetics yeauditory uye optical deficits. 23 |
Kutsigira kutarisirwa
Remdesivir inoita kunge yakachengeteka pakubata pamuviri Mamwe marapirwo (ribavirin, baricitinib) ari teratogenic, embryotoxic 39 |
Mhedziso: COVID-19, chirwere chekoronavirus 2019; IgM, immunoglobulin kirasi M; NAAT, nucleic acid amplification test; PRNT, plaque kuderedza neutralization test; RT-PCR, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test.
Chinyorwa ichi chiri kuitwa pachena kuburikidza nePubMed Central sechikamu cheCOVID-19 yehutano hweveruzhinji mhinduro. Inogona kushandiswa kutsvagisa isina kuganhurirwa kushandiswa zvakare uye kuongorora mune chero nzira kana neimwe nzira nekubvuma kweiyo yekutanga sosi, kwenguva yehutano hweveruzhinji emergency. (yakanyorwa nemunyori)
Muchiitiko chedu cheZika muPanama, kuongorora kwepaimba neimba kwakatsvaga mosquito. Nhasi, isu tinoshandisa COVID bvunzo kutsvaga iyo coronavirus. Vese vari vaviri vanotsvaga humbowo hwehutachiona, hunonzi vector inspection. Iyo vector yekuongorora inotarisa humbowo hwevanogona kutakura hutachiona uye mamiriro anobvumira kuti ibudirire.
Kuenzanisa COVID-19 kune Yakapfuura Pandemics
Kuenzaniswa nemamwe denda richangoburwa, COVID-19 mitengo seimwe yeakanyanya kupararira maererano nenyika dzakabatwa uye huwandu hwenyaya dzakaonekwa. Sezvineiwo, iyo Case Fatality Rate (CFR) yakaderera pane mamwe makuru denda.
Source: Iyo Coronavirus Inofananidzwa sei neSARS, Swine Flu, uye Mamwe Denda
Coronavirus inouraya zvakanyanya kupfuura zvimwe zvirwere zviviri zvisina kubatanidzwa mune ino chati. The 2009 kubuda kwenguruve flu (H1N1) utachiona pakati 700 mamiriyoni uye 1.4 bhiriyoni vanhu pasi rose, asi aiva CFR ye0.02%. Zvakare zvisiri muchati iyi i500,000 vanofungidzirwa kuti vane hutachiona hweZika muna 2015 na2016 uye gumi nevasere vakafa. Kuunza COVID-18 yakawanda-yezvino, kubva muna Zvita 19, iyo Worldomet ndiye coronavirus yekutevera webhusaiti yakaisa huwandu hwenyaya pa267,921,597 ne5,293,306 vafa kune yakaverengerwa CFR ye1.98%. Nekuti COVID-19 inogona kuve asymptomatic sekutsanangurwa kwazvino mu Journal of Midwifery & Women's Health kudzidza, vanogona kunge vasingatomboziva kuti vari kurwara. Hapana chikonzero chekuti vanhu ava vatsvage bvunzo kuti vasazopedzisira vave chikamu chedenominator. Mune mamwe mazwi, mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kutungamira kuti mareti eCCIDID-19 ave akakwira kupfuura iyo nhamba inoratidza.
Muchikamu chekutanga chedenda, data kubva kuepidemiology modelling, kuongororwa kwekiriniki uye kushanda kwekurapa kazhinji kushomeka. Matanho ari muchikamu chekutanga anosanganisira kukwidziridza kuyedzwa uye kushuma, kutaurirana, uye kuyedza kugadzirira iyo inotarisirwa kugona kwekudzivirira, kuyedzwa uye kurapwa. Wese munhu ipapo, angave achiziva kana kusaziva, anoita ongororo yenjodzi zvichienderana nekunzwisisa kwavo kuoma kwenjodzi, kugona kwavo kutarisana nekutyisidzira uye mhedzisiro yekutyisidzira. Munzanga yanhasi, zvitendero izvi zvinobva zvasimbiswa kana kuneteswa nekudya kwesocial media uye ruzivo.
COVID bvunzo kuongorora kuvepo kweiyo coronavirus. Zvichienderana nerudzi rwe bvunzo yakaitwa, mhedzisiro yakanaka inogona kuratidza kuti murwere ane hutachiona hunoshanda (kukurumidza molecular PCR bvunzo kana lab antigen bvunzo) kana akambova nehutachiona pane imwe nguva (antibody test).
Kana munhu aine zviratidzo zvinoenderana neCCIDIDs uye a positive viral antigen test, chiito chinofanirwa. Chiito ichocho chichava chekuuraya hutachiona uye kumisa kupararira. Asi, nekuti coronavirus inopararira, vanhu vane zviratidzo zvinyoro uye vasina mamwe mamiriro ari pasi, nyanzvi kurudzira fungidziro yebvunzo yakanaka uye vazvivharise kwemazuva gumi kusvika kumavhiki maviri. [UPDATE: Mukupera kwaZvita 2021, CDC yakapfupisa nguva yakakurudzirwa yekuzviparadzanisa nevamwe vanhu vane COVID kusvika pamazuva mashanu ichiteverwa nemazuva mashanu ekuvharira vamwe vanhu. Kune avo vanooneswa nyaya dzinozivikanwa dzehutachiona, CDC inokurudzira kuvharirwa kwemazuva mashanu pamwe nemazuva mashanu ekuvharisa kune vasina kubayiwa. Kana kuti, 5 days of masking kana wakabaiwa uye wawedzerwa.] Zvimwewo nyanzvi kurudzira kurapa asymptomatic vanhu kana vaine yakanaka COVID antigen bvunzo. (tsvakurudzo, zvisinei, inoratidza kuti kutapukira kweasymptomatic vanhu hakuna simba. Dambudziko, zvisinei, kusiyanisa asymptomatic kubva kune presymptomatic iyo inotapukira.) Utachiona hunourayiwa nekurapa murwere, zvichibvumira nzira yekudzivirira yemuviri kuwedzera mhinduro, uye kuparadzanisa murwere paanenge achipararira. Kudzivirira uye kupindira nekukurumidza ndiwo makiyi ekugadzirisa denda. Izvi ndizvo zvinozivikanwa, "kudzikamisa kwecurve. "
Mukubata neZika, zvinokurudzirwa nezvehutano hweveruzhinji sanganisira kutora matanho ekuzvidzivirira kumba izvo zvingadzivirira kuvharirwa uye kukura kweumhutu - bvisa mvura yakamira pachivanze chako, bvisa madhamu anogona kunge akaita sematairi ekare. Saizvozvowo, mazano ekuderedza kupararira yekoronavirus inosanganisira kureba kwemuviri, masiki uye kuwedzera hutsanana, sekugeza maoko uye kuraswa kwakachengeteka kwematishu akashandiswa.
https://www.news-medical.net/health/How-does-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-Compare-to-Other-Pandemics.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8242848/ ("Zvinhu zvekunze zvakaita sesocial network uye masosi eruzivo zvinogona kukwidziridza kana kukanganisa maonero enjodzi.")
https://www.city-journal.org/how-rapid-result-antigen-tests-can-help-beat-covid-19
Izvo zvandisiri kuona mune yazvino COVID denda inzira yakatarisana, inotungamirwa nedata, yakanangwa nzira. Kunyangwe muPanama, nzira yehutano hweveruzhinji kune denda reZika yanga isiri saizi-inokodzera-zvese. Zvaisashanda - nekuti zviwanikwa zvidiki - kurwisa umhutu kumberi kwese uye zvaive zvisingaite kubvisa zvese zvinogoneka mavector. Saka, zviwanikwa zvakatsaurirwa kune avo vari panjodzi huru zvichienderana nejogirafi uye nemamiriro ezvinhu.
COVID-19 Hutano Hwevanhu uye Nhanho dzeMagariro
Nedenda reCCIDID-19, hazvigonekewo kuchengetedza munhu wese kuti asatomborwara. Zvatakadzidza ndezvekuti zvine musoro kukoshesa kupindira kwehutano hweveruzhinji kune vanotambura zvakanyanya uye kune vanhu vari panjodzi yehurombo hwekurapa. Kana isu tikatevera hupfumi, isu tine data yekupembedza kupira zvimwe zviwanikwa uye kudzora matanho ku: 
- Nzvimbo dzehuwandu hwehuwandu hwevanhu - geographic pamwe nemamiriro ezvinhu - maguta, zvifambiso zveveruzhinji uye kufamba nendege.
- Masangano ane vanhu vane mamiriro epasi izvo zvinozokonzera mhedzisiro kana vakabata coronavirus - zvipatara, makiriniki.
- Vanhu vane njodzi yakanyanya yekufa kana vakabata COVID-19, kureva vakwegura mumisha inochengeterwa vakwegura, nzanga dzevasingafariri.
- Nyika dzine mamiriro ekunze anonyanya kuita kuti coronavirus idzokorore. who Inonyevera kuti hutachiona hunopararira mumamiriro ekunze ese, asi kune misiyano yemwaka inoratidza spikes mumwedzi yechando
- Vanhu vane zviratidzo vane njodzi huru yekutapurira chirwere ichi kune vamwe. Kuyedzwa kunofanirwa kutariswa pahuwandu uhu uye chiito chinotorwa nekukurumidza kuzviparadzanisa uye kurapwa.
Zvinotaridza kuti iyo WHO June 2021 kurudziro yenguva vakazendamira munzira iyi. Kurudziro mitsva inosanganisira hutano hweveruzhinji uye nhanho dzemagariro "akarongedzerwa kumamiriro enzvimbo". Nhungamiro yeWHO inoraira kuti "[Hutano hweveruzhinji nemagariro] matanho anofanirwa kuitwa nedanho rekutonga rakaderera iro kuongororwa kwemamiriro ezvinhu kunogoneka uye kunoenderana nezvimiro nemamiriro enzvimbo." Mune mamwe mazwi, kuongorora data pane yakanyanya granular level iripo uye kutora matanho. Chinyorwa ichi zvakare chinodzikisira kutariswa mu "chikamu chitsva chezvekutarisisa kwega kwega hutano hweveruzhinji matanho anoenderana nekusachengeteka kwemunhu SARS-CoV-2 zvichitevera kubaiwa kweCCIDID-19 kana hutachiona hwekare".
COVID Inogona Kutevedzera Zika's Trend?
Nyaya Yakaverengerwa yeZika muUS uye Nharaunda
Panama uye Pasi rose data inoratidza maitiro akafanana eZika kesi. The kufambira mberi chaiko ndezvekuti zvirwere zvinodzikira kuita denda, zvobva zvaita endemics nekubuda nguva nenguva. Nhasi, isu tinokwanisa kutarisa kumashure padenda reZika. Ndinopa shoko retariro. Ne data, ruzivo uye nguva, iyo coronavirus, senge hutachiona hweZika uye mavhairasi ese zvisati zvaitika, ichaita mafambiro ayo.
Kuwedzera Kuverenga: Kunonakidza, asi Hazvina Kukwana
Sei 5 yePasirose Yakaipisisa Denda Yakapera kubva kuNhoroondo Channel
Pfupi Nhoroondo Yezvirwere (Pandemics Munhoroondo Yese)
Madenda anopera sei? Nhoroondo inoratidza kuti zvirwere zvinopera asi zvinenge zvisingapere zvachose
Pakupedzisira, Chimwe Chombo Chipokana neCovid
Sei Poop Inopa Mazano Nezve Kupararira kweCoronavirus
Chokwadi chiri kuseri kweCoronavirus Poop Panic
